The period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seemed unusual in the sense that periodic crises and post GFC caution prevented the global economy from overheating and excesses building, in turn preventing the return of the conventional economic cycle. Many of course concluded this was permanent and that inflation would never rise again (with talk of structural stagnation, the Amazon effect, etc). However, it’s becoming increasingly clear the global economy is moving out of its post GFC funk – with growth picking up and signs that inflation will too (led by the US) – and arguably returning to a more normal investment cycle. The pullback in shares and surge in volatility seen this month likely indicates an adjustment in investor expectations to reflect this. This note looks at what to watch.

If you can't decide between a fixed or variable rate, a split rate home loan could provide the best of both worlds.

If you’re about to take out a home loan and are looking for some protection against interest rate rises, a fixed rate home loan may sound like the loan for you.

On the other hand, if you don’t want to miss out on the benefits of a potential interest rate cut, and/or you’re looking for additional flexibility, a variable rate home loan could also have its advantages.

Introduction
If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this has not been the case in Australia. Some worry Australians are unsustainably stretched, and it is only a matter of time before it blows up, bringing the economy down at the same time. Particularly now that global interest rates are starting to rise. This note looks at the main issues.

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” said Franklin D Roosevelt at his inauguration as US President in 1933.

I think “the only thing we have to fear is the fear index itself” is a better description of where investors are at right now.

It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street and beyond of the past week – the worst in two years for the S&P 500 – with the volatility causing many to ask if the bubble has burst and the equities bull market is over.

The sudden market realisation that US borrowing costs are likely to rise significantly this year will drive demand for real estate investments that offer income growth, according to AMP Capital Head of Real Estate Research Luke Dixon.

2017 was unusual for US shares. While Japanese, European and Australian shares had decent corrections throughout the year of around 5 to 7%, the US share market as measured by the S&P 500 saw only very mild pullbacks of less than 3%. This was against the backdrop of a strongly rising trend thanks to very positive economic conditions and President Trump’s business friendly policies.