18
Oct

Where are we in the global investment cycle and what's the risk of a 1987 style crash?

This month of October often creates apprehension amongst investors given its historic track record with the 1929 and 1987 share market crashes. And it was in October 2007 that US shares peaked ahead of 50% plus falls (in most share markets) through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). From the post-GFC share market lows in March 2009, US…
16
Oct

Will Australian House Prices Crash? Five reasons why it's more complicated than you think

A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it. Recent signs of price falls – notably…
22
Sep

The US Federal Reserve starts quantitative tightening

The US Federal Reserve provided few surprises following its September meeting. While it left interest rates on hold, it confirmed that it will begin what it calls “balance sheet normalisation” next month and continued to signal its expectation that it will raise interest rates again in December and in the years ahead. While projected interest rates increases…
22
Sep

Where are we in the search for yield? Is it about to reverse as the Fed starts quantitative tightening?

For some time now, the investment world has been characterised by a search for decent yield paying investments. This “search for yield” actually started last decade but was interrupted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone debt crisis before resuming again in earnest. When investment assets are in strong demand from investors, their price goes…
12
Sep

Another five great charts on investing

Introduction As Warren Buffett once said: “There seems to be a perverse human characteristic that makes easy things difficult.” This has particularly been the case with investing where complexity has multiplied with new products, new ways to access various investments, tax changes and new regulations, all with social media adding to the noise. But it’s really quite…
08
Sep

The Australian economy bounces back - five reasons why some further pick up is likely

  Growth bounces back (again) After another (weather related) soft patch in the March quarter, Australian economic growth bounced back in the June quarter with quarterly growth of 0.8%, up from 0.3%. However, annual growth is still subdued at 1.8% year on year, which is well below potential of around 2.75%. In the quarter, growth was helped…
24
Aug

The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on- Lessons learned and can it happen again?

The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on- Lessons learned and can it happen again? Introduction It seems momentous things happen in years ending in seven. Well, at least in the last 50 years starting with the “summer of love” in 1967 and the introduction of the Chevrolet Camaro.  
26
Jul

Five great charts on investing

Five great charts on investing Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding ways available…