22
Mar

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle

  Unlisted commercial property (office, retail and industrial) and infrastructure have had strong returns this decade. For commercial property, since 2010 returns have averaged nearly 11% pa  
14
Mar

Tarriffs, trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog

  Geopolitical events like Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in the US “surprised” investors in 2016 but had no lasting negative impact on global financial markets. By last year investors were well focussed on geopolitical risks – Trump taking over as US President, Eurozone elections, the Communist Party Congress in China and rising risks around North Korea…
09
Mar

The Australian economy - five reasons growth will continue

Growth just muddling along   For the last few years the Australian economy has been meandering between 2-3% growth. This remained the case through last year with December quarter GDP up just 0.4%, and annual growth of 2.4% as a bounce a year ago dropped out. In the quarter growth was helped by consumer spending and public…
22
Feb

The 'gradually' maturing investment cycle - what is the risk of a US recession?

The period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seemed unusual in the sense that periodic crises and post GFC caution prevented the global economy from overheating and excesses building, in turn preventing the return of the conventional economic cycle. Many of course concluded this was permanent and that inflation would never rise again (with talk of…
15
Feb

Australia's love affair with debt - how big is the risk?

IntroductionIf Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this has not been…
12
Feb

The pullback in shares-seven reasons not to be too concerned

The pullback in shares seen over the last week or two has seen much coverage and generated much concern. This is understandable given the rapid falls in share markets seen on some days. From their highs to their recent lows, US and Japanese shares have fallen 10%, Eurozone shares have fallen 8%, Chinese shares have fallen 9%…
06
Feb

Correction time for shares?

2017 was unusual for US shares. While Japanese, European and Australian shares had decent corrections throughout the year of around 5 to 7%, the US share market as measured by the S&P 500 saw only very mild pullbacks of less than 3%. This was against the backdrop of a strongly rising trend thanks to very positive economic…
05
Feb

Higher global inflation and higher bond yields - what's the risk and implications for other assets?

Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there have been a few occasions when many feared inflation was about to rebound and push bond yields sharply higher only to see growth relapse and deflationary concerns dominate. As a result, expectations for higher inflation globally has been progressively squeezed out to the point that few seem to be expecting…