16
Jan

2019 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2017 was a great year for well diversified investors – returns were solid (balanced super funds returned around 10%) and volatility was low. So optimism was high going into 2018 but it turned out to be anything but great for investors who saw poor returns (average balanced super funds look to have lost around 1-2%) and volatile…
07
Jan

The Fed and market turmoil - the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

Three years after it first started raising interest rates in this cycle the Fed has increased rates for the ninth time, raising the Fed Funds rate another 0.25% to a target range of 2.25-2.5%. While this was largely anticipated by markets, the Fed was less ...
18
Dec

The Australian economy in 2019 - house prices, growth and interest rates - another cycle extension

This note looks at the main issues around the housing downturn and what it means for the economy and investors.
11
Dec

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 - another cycle extension

After the relatively low volatility and solid returns of 2017, the past year has seen almost the complete opposite with high volatility and poor returns. It started strongly in January but started to get messy from February. At a big picture level things were fine ...
28
Nov

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

While global and Australian shares had a nice bounce from their late October lows – rallying about 5%, partly reversing their 10% or so top to bottom fall, they have since fallen back to their lows as the worries about US rates, bond yields, trade, tech stocks, etc, have morphed into broader concerns about global growth and…
05
Oct

Five charts to keep an eye on regarding the global economy

There is lots of talk about when the next major economic downturn will be. This interest seems to have been particularly noticeable over the last week or so given the ten-year anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers which helped usher in the worst phase of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which naturally prompted the question of…
05
Oct

Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay - how to turn down the noise

It may seem that the worry list for investors is bigger and more confusing than ever before. Some of this may relate to US President Trump’s disruptive and “open mouth” approach as highlighted by the “trade war” and his frequent and sometimes contradictory tweets. For example, on 24th July ...
25
Sep

7 lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.