22
Aug

Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

This note looks at outlook for the $A and why it makes sense for Australian-based investors to hold a decent exposure to foreign exchange.
07
Aug

The US economy - does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession. In this regard, over the last year or so there has been increasing concern that a ...
07
Aug

Trumponomics and investment markets

Since Donald Trump was elected President back on November 8, 2016 we have focussed on whether we will see Trump the rabble-rousing populist or Trump the business-friendly pragmatist. Despite lots of noise – particularly via Trump’s frequent tweets – for the most part Trump the pragmatist has dominated so far. But we have clearly seen a swing…
06
Jul

Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates?

It’s nearly two years since the Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates – when it cut rates to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. That’s a record period of inaction – or boredom for those who like to see action on rates whether it’s up or down. Of course, there are lots of…
06
Jul

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors - but there's a few storm clouds around

After reviewing the returns of the last financial year, this note looks at the investment outlook for 2018-19 financial year.
22
Jun

Trade wars risks are escalating - but a negotiated solution remains most likely

The threat of a full-blown trade war has escalated in the last few weeks with the G7 meeting ending in disarray over US tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from its allies and more importantly President Trump threatening tariffs on (so far at least) $US450bn of imports from China, and China threatening to retaliate. Our base…
05
Jun

China's economy is pretty stable - but what about high debt levels and other risks?

It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree.
28
May

Italy is a worry - but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit

So far this year geopolitical developments have been having a significant impact on investment markets. Most of these revolve in some way around ...