22
Jun

Trade wars risks are escalating - but a negotiated solution remains most likely

The threat of a full-blown trade war has escalated in the last few weeks with the G7 meeting ending in disarray over US tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from its allies and more importantly President Trump threatening tariffs on (so far at least) $US450bn of imports from China, and China threatening to retaliate. Our base…
05
Jun

China's economy is pretty stable - but what about high debt levels and other risks?

It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree.
28
May

Italy is a worry - but 3 reasons not to be concerned about an Itexit

So far this year geopolitical developments have been having a significant impact on investment markets. Most of these revolve in some way around ...
12
Apr

US China trade war fears - Q & A

IntroductionMuch has been written about the trade dispute between the US and China and the risk of a global trade war. Much of it has been hyperbole but financial markets have had to price in the risks of a full-blown trade war zapping global growth. This has been difficult given almost daily developments on the issue since…
09
Apr

Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices-is this the crash? What about other cities & the impact on the economy?

Australian capital city home prices fell 0.2% in March, their fifth monthly fall in a row. This has brought annual growth down to 0.8% from 11.4% in May last year. Most of the recent weakness relates to Sydney and to a less extent Melbourne.  
27
Mar

Share market volatility - Trump and trade war risks

  After the calm of 2017, 2018 is proving to be anything but with shares falling in February on worries about US inflation, only to rebound and then fall again with markets back to or below their February low, notwithstanding a nice US bounce overnight. From their highs in January to their lows in the last few…
22
Mar

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle

  Unlisted commercial property (office, retail and industrial) and infrastructure have had strong returns this decade. For commercial property, since 2010 returns have averaged nearly 11% pa  
14
Mar

Tarriffs, trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog

  Geopolitical events like Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in the US “surprised” investors in 2016 but had no lasting negative impact on global financial markets. By last year investors were well focussed on geopolitical risks – Trump taking over as US President, Eurozone elections, the Communist Party Congress in China and rising risks around North Korea…