05
Oct

Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay - how to turn down the noise

It may seem that the worry list for investors is bigger and more confusing than ever before. Some of this may relate to US President Trump’s disruptive and “open mouth” approach as highlighted by the “trade war” and his frequent and sometimes contradictory tweets. For example, on 24th July ...
25
Sep

7 lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
22
Aug

Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

This note looks at outlook for the $A and why it makes sense for Australian-based investors to hold a decent exposure to foreign exchange.
07
Aug

The US economy - does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession. In this regard, over the last year or so there has been increasing concern that a ...
07
Aug

Trumponomics and investment markets

Since Donald Trump was elected President back on November 8, 2016 we have focussed on whether we will see Trump the rabble-rousing populist or Trump the business-friendly pragmatist. Despite lots of noise – particularly via Trump’s frequent tweets – for the most part Trump the pragmatist has dominated so far. But we have clearly seen a swing…
06
Jul

Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates?

It’s nearly two years since the Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates – when it cut rates to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016. That’s a record period of inaction – or boredom for those who like to see action on rates whether it’s up or down. Of course, there are lots of…
06
Jul

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors - but there's a few storm clouds around

After reviewing the returns of the last financial year, this note looks at the investment outlook for 2018-19 financial year.
22
Jun

Trade wars risks are escalating - but a negotiated solution remains most likely

The threat of a full-blown trade war has escalated in the last few weeks with the G7 meeting ending in disarray over US tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from its allies and more importantly President Trump threatening tariffs on (so far at least) $US450bn of imports from China, and China threatening to retaliate. Our base…